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This is a story about angry people.

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It's about live streaming, and it's about
how nothing seems to have changed.

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Because what I wanted to do this year, was
I wanted to predict the future.

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I know, Ian, you said right at the start we
need empathy not prediction, but I wanted

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to take a pattern, I wanted to look at what
was in 2010, when we had the last general

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election, I wanted to draw a line from that
to where we are here, and then I wanted to

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work out what the 2020 general election was
going to be like.

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But I came across a massive problem.

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I want to leave you with a view of the future,
a vaguely optimistic note to end the conference

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on.

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But: what the hell has changed in the last
five years?

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'Cos I've always said that predictions of
the future never turn out to be true, the

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best you can do is kind-of extrapolate, hope
nothing world-changing comes along.

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'Cos fifteen years ago I would have said that
everyone is going to have a really powerful

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desktop computer at home to change the world.

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I wouldn't have predicted the Palm Pilot that
actually came out of their pocket.

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But as far as the web, as far as most everyday
tech goes, as far as what we're talking about

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here: 2015 was the same as 2010.

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I mean, look at the general election, look
at this: that's 2010.

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I mean, sure, we now have a few more people
engaged online, we not have a few more politicans

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with Twitter accounts, but it's basically
the bloody same.

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Smartphones in 2010, they were already mainstream.

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We had the iPhone 4, we had half-decent versions
of Android.

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We already had Facebook and Twitter, we'd
had them for years.

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Every high-profile thing to do with our world
and the web since then has been an iteration

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on that.

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Oh, look you've got a shiny screen and it's
curved at the edges.

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Oh, look, you've got another social network
app that's another front end to a database.

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I was making -- this is me, five years ago.

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I was making predictions, in 2010, about flashmobs,
about social change, about the accelerating

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speed of society.

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And now that all just seems normal.

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It's happened.

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It's been four years.

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Four years since our now-departed Ed Balls
tweeted "Ed Balls".

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Four years.

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And that's still a punchline!

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You're still laughing at it!

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For anyone who wants the future to be here
now, this is a really frustrating time.

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So I'm left wondering, what's next?

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What is the culture of 2020 going to look
like if it is just a faster version of 2015?

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Faster, though.

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Faster is the important word.

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Because that is one thing that has changed
in the last five years.

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The speed.

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A lot of you will have seen this: last month,
we had Memories Pizza.

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They said in a TV interview that they would
choose not to cater a gay wedding, under the

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new laws that were coming in in their state.

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The first wave of backlash, of course, hit
immediately, as that video went viral, and

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the owners -- well, depending on who was writing
the article, the owners either were forced

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to close down their shop, or chose to close
down their shop, depending on who you were

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listening to, and they went into hiding.

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But then!

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Then a second wave of backlash hits just as
fast as the first, as conservative Christians

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arrive to fight the terrible oppression.

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And they donate eight hundred thousand dollars
to the pizza shop in a few days.

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That is a terrifyingly fast overreaction from
both sides.

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Both immediately-polarised sides.

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Far more than I'd ever thought possible.

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And do you remember Shirtgate?

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Everyone -- yeah.

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I heard that 'ugggh' in the audience.

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'Cos that was a controversy that had the kind-of
air of inevitability about it from the start.

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From the first comments that maybe, just,
just maybe, a shirt covered in pictures of

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scantily-clad women isn't really suitable
for any workplace after the 1970s, let alone

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a major scientific press conference, from
those first reasonable comments I think everyone

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involved had that 'ugggh' feeling.

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We know how this is going to play out.

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Because within a couple of hours, it's not
so much a debate as a ritual shouting match

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between two immediately-polarised sides, both
shouting straw-men arguments at each other,

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and not wanting to back down, in case the
other side thinks they've won.

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And meanwhile, article after article, post
after post, tweet after tweet.

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Write an inflammatory headline, stick an image
in the tweet so it's bigger in everyone's

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timelines, get the numbers in.

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I worked in a newsroom for 18 months, I have
seen the requirements for Numbers.

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Because that's how you get them, you -- you
go for the clickbait.

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You-- you try to be extreme, because if you're
not extreme enough, then your own side will

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start criticising you and thinking you're
going to be a traitor for the other side,

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trying to subtly support the Others.

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That wasn't happening in 2010.

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Not with that speed, not with that viciousness.

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Not with everyone getting in on it.

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Small communities, sure.

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But the whole web?

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Not so much.

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That speed of outrage isn't ever going to
slow down now.

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So: hold that thought.

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Because this year, we had two competing live
video apps.

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We had Periscope, we had Meerkat.

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Meerkat came along first, used Twitter, Twitter
launched Periscope a couple of weeks later

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and basically shut down Meerkat and killed
their access.

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Because that's how we work now.

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Neither of those were ever going to become
mainstream, truly mainstream, because the

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technology isn't quite there yet.

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They are basically Friendster.

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Do you remember Friendster?

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It was like Facebook, but a little bit too
early.

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It was good: but it wasn't Facebook.

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The world wasn't quite ready for it.

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They are the Palm Pilot.

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I had one of those.

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It was good, it was good, but it wasn't the
iPod.

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It wasn't the iPhone, it was a little bit
too early.

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Periscope and Meerkat are like the Palm Pilot:
they are great early versions, and we currently

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have -- yeah.

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So, just after Periscope launched, me and
a friend were in the middle of London, started

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a stream, out of nowhere, and said right,
okay, let's guide people around London.

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200!

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300!

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400 people!

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Right now: 50.

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You know that curve a startup has where it
goes 'wheeeey, everyone's going to use-- oh.

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Oh.

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Ah.'

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Yes.

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That's what's happened.

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Because the mobile networks are a bit shaky,
Because it's not quite been figured out yet.

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They are Friendster, they are the Palm Pilot,
the world isn't quite prepared.

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But someone is going to crack live video streaming.

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Might be five years, might be ten.

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My pet theory is still that Apple is going
to put little cameras in their earbuds, 'cos

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they've got the cable, and they've got the
battery, but that's not required.

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People are now used to folks just holding
up a camera like this.

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That's normal.

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Wave to the internet, people.

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Hey!

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They were go.

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Er, the internet -- has made no comments waving
back at you because they're rude.

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Come on.

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Oh, there -- "Hello."

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Hello.

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Thank you there to "Dertwittig", whoever you
are.

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That's not going to go mainstream.

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Not yet.

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But when it does, when someone cracks that,
it's going to have the same step-change effect

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as Twitter.

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Because the world is going to know, not in
the kind of shonky five minutes ago real time

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we've got now, they are going to know, in
real time, to the second, what's happening.

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And that's important because "why didn't you
do this" will become "why don't you do this".

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'Cos that means we've got proper, ubiquitous
surveillance.

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Sky News is already more than go live to someone
with a webcam if they need to.

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That's in...

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Anbar Province.

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If they need to go to an interview there,
damn the picture quality, they'll get the

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interview there first, it doesn't matter.

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As soon as live streaming actually starts
to happen, they'll have an amateur reporter

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on the ground anywhere, whenever something
happens.

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Not when it's happened: when it is happening.

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But that also means if an online mob of 2020
targets you, then there is suddenly a chance

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that you're being watched and broadcasted
live whenever you're in public, as an organised,

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anonymous, angry mob combs through every nearby
geotagged live stream looking for you.

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And if that seems improbable, if it seems
like no-one would go to so great an effort

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for so small a reward, remember that over
the last year there were threats of bombs

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and mass shootings sent -- credible threats
-- because of criticism of video games.

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Multiple times.

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If people are angry about something so trivial:
what are they going to do when they actually

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care?

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But there are reasons to care.

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There is another side to that coin.

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There is Baltimore.

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There is Ferguson.

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That's an astonishing tweet, isn't it?

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Because it used to be that the narrative for
anything like that was set by press releases,

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by edited interviews, by news organisations,
by pundits arguing and the political views

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of whoever controlled the tabloids and the
television.

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Increasingly, it's controlled by filter bubbles,
that's where we are now.

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By the hot takes of 2015 journalism, by -- by
the absolute easy share, and by the clickbait.

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It's like they took Buzzfeed and just turned
it wrong.

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It's horrible.

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The footage that you see today is limited
by what people choose to send.

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If the photo you take on the ground isn't
actually flattering to your side -- maybe

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you won't share it.

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But if it paints you in a positive light,
then yes, of course, you will.

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But with live streaming?

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Ha.

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The people watching -- these people just here
-- they are seeing exactly what you see.

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In real time.

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The vast majority of the world will still
see it afterwards, of course, but that won't

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change the fact that sooner or later, there
is -- you know, I'm going to keep this with

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me.

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Sooner or later, there is going to be an event
where thousands of people, tens of thousands

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of people, where more than in this room, thousands
of thousands, will believe that they were

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there.

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Because they saw it through the eyes of someone
who was holding their camera up.

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And that's a big difference.

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It won't be "where were you when you found
out that X happened", it'll be "were you watching

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when it did?"

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And that means that suddenly you don't have
one eyewitness, you don't have two eyewitnesses

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and one bit of film that can be changed afterwards
and edited and tweaked and endlessly torn

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apart by pundits.

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You have 10,000 eyewitnesses who all saw the
same thing.

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So when that moment happens.

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Let's put these two things together.

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When that moment happens, when the word "on
a livestream" trips from a news anchor's mouth

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as easy as "tweeted" does today.

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When you start seeing whatever company actually
wins -- and it ain't gonna be Periscope -- but

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when whatever company actually wins, when
their name starts being dropped into conversation

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like "tweeted" is today: remember when it
felt like nothing was changing.

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Remember when we were complaining that it
is just new, shiny screens.

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Because things are changing.

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Because sometimes it's not about spectacle,
it's not about the big thing that's going

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to make everyone go 'wow'.

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Sometimes it is about slow change, it is about
changing people's opinions, it is about reaching

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the future through slow, incremental steps,
and things getting a little bit better, day

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after day after day.

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And so all I can say is: enjoy the next five
years.

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My name's Tom Scott.

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Enjoy the afterparty.

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Good night!

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Thank you.

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[APPLAUSE]

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HERB KIM, EMCEE: Okay, folks.

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Wow, well, that is it, believe it or not.

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We are--